Economic assessment on corn-based fuel ethanol projects in China

This paper aims to assess the economic feasibility and long-term investment risks of corn-based fuel ethanol(CFE) projects in China. First, based on CFE production processes and data collected on-site, internal cost model of CFE was set up first, and then the projects' net cash flow(NCF) and net present value (NPV) were simulated in computer using Monte Carlo method. Thereafter, reasons underlying the results were analyzed through sensitivity analysis, revealing that CFE has little possibility to get accepted for the time being, and possible solution scenarios were proposed, too.