Land use scenario analysis based on the IPAT-S script language method and its application

The land use change scenario analysis method is established through linear goal program optimized land use area transition matrix produced by Markov chain. The method is based on the principle of minimal change of the land use type conversion system. With the method the annual area transition matrix among the land use types and the total area of each land use type can be calculated under different scenario setting. The method is implemented through IPAT-S script language. Land use changes from 2002 to 2015 was analyzed under four scenario setting schemes in Haidian District, Beijing. The results show that the scenario settings strongly influence the land use structure; the land use intensities of urban and industrial land are the most decisive factors to the decrease of arable and orchard land.