Model of planting decision-making against weather accidents on cross bedding of farming and animal husbandary in the east of Inner Mongolia

According to the Bayes Rule, climate types in various years and statistics methods, the planting decision-making on cross bedding of farming and animal husbandary in the east of Inner Mongolia Autonomons Region was analyzed, the preliminary results show: the planting decision-making should depend on the forecast of meteorology department, maize planting area should be increased when drought occurs; soybean planting area should be increased slightly when flood occurs; soybean planting area should be increased when no flood happens; soybean planting area should be increased when the hazard of low temperature happens, and be increased when there is no hazard of low temperature. On test of the method: in 1998, 2000, and 2002, according to the planting propotion of the optimum adjustment-project Ⅰ, the production value would be increased separately by 53.9 million yuan, 67.0 million yuan and 35.6 million yuan. According to optimum adjustment-project Ⅱ, the production value would be increased separately by 72.4 million yuan, 66.4 million yuan and 54.9 million yuan. Because the Bayes Rule does not require normal distribution of chosen factor samples and the chosen factors can be described in different scales, the factors of non-linearity and non-magnitude can be well expressed. The practice indicate that the Planting Decision-making on Cross Bedding of Farming and Animal Husbandary in the East of Inner Mongolia by the Bayes Rule is feasible.