Modeling sown area change for major crops during 2005～2035 at a global scale

Changes of sown area for crops at global-scale have important effects for the agricultural sustainable development, food safety and eco-environment. An integrated model to simulate future changes in sown area of the world's major crops(rice, maize, wheat and soybean) at a global-scale was established based on a Logit model. Model validation by using two comparative methods indicates its reliability and capability for long-term scenario simulations. Based on the simulation for the period 2005～2035, the temporal and spatial characteristics of sown area changes for four major crops were analyzed and a specific attention was given to Asia region for its great implications for global agricultural production and food security. This study is the first attempt of modeling future change in crop sown area at global-scale through a simplified approach along with some assumptions. Although some uncertainties remain in the model, the simulation results can help to understand and explain the causes, locations, consequences and trajectories of agricultural land-use change, and provide a great support service for land-use planning and policy-making activities.