Changes of comparative advantages of regional grain production in China

Based on the panel data of provincial grain production in China from 1994 to 2005, the trend of Chinese provincial grain structure variation was analyzed using the index of regional grain production advantage. The study found that Chinese provincial grain production showed a centralized trend on the province level. The indexes of regional grain production advantage of the developed provinces, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Zhejiang, decrease seriously, in contrast with the great rises in Liaoning and Jilin provinces. From regional perspectives, the gravity centers of grain production in China are transferring from the east to the central and northeast China. The driving forces of the variations can be attributed to three factors: benefits from grain plantation, household land scale, opportunity cost of agricultural labor. Although grain returns in eastern China are higher than that of other regions, smaller scale, higher opportunity cost and benefit of industrial crops bring negative influences to grain plantation of eastern China. Thus, it is necessary that grain production in eastern China decreases progressively.