Economic security evaluation of land resource in China from 1999 to 2008

This research establishes a comprehensive evaluation index system of economic security of land resources by using Delphi and AHP methods. An empirical analysis of China is conducted. The conclusions are as follows. Firstly, the economic security of land resources in China keeps on improving from 1999 to 2008, and it is on the level of “basic security” since 2007. Secondly, from the perspective of each criterion layer, quality security and efficiency security improve year by year, and reach the level of “security”. The main restricting factors of China’s economic growth are quantity security, structure security and price security, keeping “unsafe” or even “highly insecure” state for a long period of time. Finally, from the perspective of each index, several index evaluation values significantly increase, such as some quality security indexes (unit acreage production, environmental investment proportion of GDP) and some efficiency security indexes (unit acreage investment in fixed assets, unit acreage GDP, multiple crop index). The unfavorable factors are: arable land area per capita decreases year by year, approaching “absolutely unsafe” in 2008; land reclamation area and unused land area per capita also keep on decreasing; forest cover stays at low level; residential land prices and commercial land prices fluctuate sharply in recent years.