Dynamic evolution of the ecological service value based on LUCC in Miyun Reservoir Catchment

Based on value equivalent, the ecological services value of Miyun Reservoir Catchment was evaluated and predicted dynamically with land use data of four periods and the Markov model to realize ecological sustainable development of land use and land cover change. The results indicated that all types of land use turned to forest land gradually in a whole trend, with the conversion method from complex to simple, the strength from strong to weak during the four periods from 1972 to 2008. The total value of ecosystem services in 1987, 2000, 2008 and 2020 which were verified and predicted increased by 1.9%, 14.4%, 18.9% and 18.6%, respectively, than that in 1972. The ecological services value of forest accounted for more than 65% of the total value. Value summation of hydrological regulation, maintenance of biological diversity and soil conversation occupied about 50%. During the former three periods, forest was the dominant factor impacting the change of the ecosystem services value, grass was forecasted to turn to the dominant factor during 2008 to 2020.