Analysis of factors on impacting potential productivity of winter wheat in Huanghuaihai agricultural area over 30 years

In this paper, light-temperatural and meteorological potential productivity of wheat were analyzed in 21 typical sites from seven sub-zones of Huanghuaihai agricultural area in the period of 1968–1977 (C1 scenario) and 1998–2007 (C2 scenario) by using AEZ (Agro-Ecological Zone) model. Meanwhile, the effects of climate conditions and cultivar on the wheat potential productivity were evaluated in order to find out the reason for the variability of productivity in different zones over times. The results showed the potential productivity on light-temperatural and meteorological level increased by 3.96 t/hm2 and 3.32 t/hm2 from 1968–1977 (C1 scenario) to 1998–2007 (C2 scenario), respectively. The increase of potential productivity was higher in the south and east areas than that in the north and west. The improved breeds (0.44) played a more important role in increasing light-temperatural potential yield than meteorology (0.33) and interaction between them (0.22). The increase of light-temperatural potential mainly depended on the improved breeds in north and east areas, where the climate condition was adverse; while in south and west area the improving of potential productivity was due to both the improved breeds and advantageous climate. In Huanghuaihai agricultural area, water is the limited factor for meteorological potential productivity because of less precipitation during the period from jointing to heading.