Scenarios simulation of town land use change under different spatial constraints

The purpose of the paper is to study the land use change under different scenarios of Xinzhuang Town in the future decades. Based on land-use historical data extracted from four periods high-resolution remote sensing images of Xinzhuang Town, integrated with GIS spatial analysis technology, three scenarios were designed: 1) current trend (CT), 2) urban planning and basic farmland protection (PF), 3) ecological and environmental protection (EE), under current land-use trend, farmland protection and ecological safety, to make different spatial constraints. The CLUE-S model was used to forecast land use change in the next 20 years of Xinzhuang Town under different scenarios, and the spatio-temporal characteristics, spatial pattern and ecological risks of different modeling results were compared. The results showed that Xinzhuang Town would be faced with continuous construction land increasing, and the scenario CT would be the most significant, and a large amount of farmland would be lost under all scenarios. But the land use change characteristics, landscape pattern and ecological security showed obvious differentiation under different scenarios. It is concluded that the scenario PF is the recommended future land use change scenario from comprehensively compared results. Simulation results of CLUE-S model can reflect future land use change and potential ecological risk of different constraints, and the scenario design and spatial modeling method of CLUE-S model will be useful for decision-making of land use plan.