Evaluating drought vulnerability of agricultural system in Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone, China

Drought is one of the principal pertubations in Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone（PLEEZ）. It is important to investigate the mechanism of droughts in order to evaluate potential losses of droughts and provide a scientific basis for policymaking. We selected fourteen indicators representing exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to droughts respectively. The weights of the indicators were calculated by analytic hierarchy process. Then using the composite index approach these indicators were combined into a drought vulnerability index of agricultural system by a linear aggregation. Maps of drought vulnerability and its elements in PLEEZ were drawn by applying the software of ArcGIS9.3. The results showed that the drought vulnerability of the agricultural system in PLEEZ were mainly at middle rank. Spatial differentiation of the drought vulnerablity existed that the rank of the drought vulnerability in the northern areas of PLEEZ were higher than that in the south. On the basis of the relationship between the drought vulnerability and exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capability, some suggestions for the drought hazard management in the future were proposed.