Dynamic simulation of land use change in Jihe watershed based on CA-Markov model

To explore the law of land use change and driving force in Loess hilly-gully area in Jihe watershed, based on the land use data interpretation from remote sensing images in 1995 and 2008, the degree of dynamic change of land use type in Jihe watershed was analyzed by dynamic degree model and spatial analysis model, and distribution of land use spatial patterns in 2022 was forecast by using the CA-Markov model. The results showed that spatial analysis model not only took the conversion process into account but also the spatial expansion process of land use change, so it could more precisely measure the dynamic change rate of land use. The simulation result by the CA-Markov method indicated that, the value of Kappa coefficients of agreement in the whole watershed was 0.9515, and forecasting results were credible. From 2008 to 2022, except for grassland and unused land, trends of land use evolution as well as its rate will keep constant. That is, the area of slope farmland, grassland, water and unused land will continue to reduce in some degree, while terrace, forest land and settlements will present a increasing trend. Because the Loess hilly-gully is a serious soil erosion area, this research is helpful to reinforce the protection of land resource and to enforce the agro-forestry policies of reusing farmland for forestland and grassland, and it is meaningful to serve as a scientific basis for land planning and management.