Risk analysis on construction of agricultural water conservancy projects

Project of agricultural water conservancy construction is an open and complex system with huge investment, long construction period, complex internal structure and many participants, and which is restrained by time, resources, environment, and so on. The paper aimed to establish a 3-layer structure system of the risks of agricultural water conservancy construction by applying Analytic Hierarchy Process and analyze risks of the construction of a water conservancy project by using Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that the main risks of the project are the deformation and leakage of the dam, leakage and penetration objects of the dam foundation. Therefore, for the agricultural water conservancy projects that are mainly used for social and ecological benefits, more strategies should be applied to avoid dam leakage and deformation of engineering so as to reduce the risks of the project.