Land use and ecosystem service value scenarios simulation in Danjiangkou reservoir area

Danjiangkou Reservoir is the water soure of the middle route of south-to-north water diversion project. Not only water flooded area will increase after the normal storage level in 2015, but also land-use will change. Based on the analysis of gray forecast，3 target situation including ecological security, economic development and integrated development were designed. Meanwhile, temporal and spatial simulations were conducted on the land use and its value of ecosystem services in the reservoir area with CLUE-S model. The results indicate that: the change of each ecosystem type, size and spatial distribution pattern which caused by land use change before and after raising the water level can directly affect the type and intensity of services provided by ecosystem. The maximum total value is the objectives scenario of ecological security, which is 16.19 billion Yuan and 16.72 billion Yuan respectively before and after raising the water level. The minimum total value is the economic development target scenarios, which is 15.903 billion Yuan to 15.373 billion Yuan corresponding. The total values of ecosystem services are improved in all scenarios. The value raises 525 million Yuan, 530 million Yuan, 530 million Yuan and 542 million Yuan respectively in gray prediction, ecological security and economic development target scenarios and integrated development goals scenarios.