Land use scenarios simulation of Foshan city based on gray model and cellular automata model

LUCC model is an efficient tool to analysis the processes and consequences of land use systems, and to support land use planning and policy. According to the problem that constructive land expansion is the main reason for land use change in Foshan city, based on remote sensing data of land use change with spatial resolution of 30 m, the paper choose grey model as quantitative model and the cellular automata model as spatial model to simulate the land use pattern of 2015 by setting different scenario conditions. Results showed that in three kinds of expansion circumstances of,constructive land, the area of constructive land increased 27 830、21 645 and 15 461 hm2 respectively, the corresponding proportion of the cultivated land was 42.28%, 48.38% and 55.96% respectively. This indicates that cultivated land is still the main source of constructive land expansion, the contradiction between cultivated land protection and economic development will further expend