Estimation of food grain demand per capita based on rational dietary pattern

In a region, the food security is affected by the capacity of food supply, which largely determined by crop production, and food demand determined by food diet and population. Taking Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as a case, this study developed a model to optimize requirement of food grain considering the need of energy and various nutritional elements such as protein, fat and other minor elements, as well as conversion efficiency of feeds to meats. Firstly, according to data from social surveys and statistics, the types of staple food grain and meats in the region were defined, and then the demand for each of the defined grain and meat types was optimized. Next, the meats, egg and milk were converted to grains and forages based on the conversion ratio of feeds to meat. The optimized annual demand per capita is as follows: rice 4 kg, wheat 103 kg, maize 180 kg, soybean 27 kg, millet 21 kg, potato 27 kg, grass 12 kg, green maize (forage) 28 kg, vegetables 48 kg, fruit 16 kg. This optimization results can be used as a reference for the adjustment of local food production structure.