Spatial-temporal dynamic change and analysis of grain production in county scale in Bohai Rim from 1980 to 2008

In order to reveal the heterogeneity of grain production, the spatiotemporal dynamic variation of grain production from 1980 to 2008 and related influencing factors at county level in Bohai Rim was carried out based on Gini coefficient, exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and spatial error mode (SEM). The following results were obtained: the amount of grain production increased by 3647×104 t, grain production in 282 counties showed an upward trend and gradually concentrated in the plain area and countries whose grain production was higher; grain production at county level in area along Bohai Rim had a strong spatial autocorrelation and regional grain difference will increase in the future, and the polarization trend of per capital grain more serious; the counties with higher grain production gathered in Liaohe plain and western Shandong province, while the lower grain production gathered in mountainous-hilly areas and tableland areas; the main factors which affected the regional pattern of grain production were the arable land area, cropping structure, grain production in former term. This research provides a scientific basis for optimizing grain production distribution and establishing grain production policies.