Dynamic change and prediction of land use in Harbin city based on CA-Markov model

To explore the spatio-temporal evolution law of land use and driving mechanism in urbanization of Harbin city, based on the data of Landsat TM images in 1989, 2001 and 2007 and Geo-Information TUPU theory, the distribution land use pattern in past 18 years was analyzed by RS and GIS. At the same time, based on the land use pattern in 2007, by using CA-Markov model, the land use patterns and the spatial pattern distribution of the equilibrium state in 2025 were forecasted. The results showed: the land use pattern was mainly dominated by cropland, area proportion of which exceeded 60%, followed by the forestland and the resident land; the spatial distribution of stable type atlas was wide-ranging and its area proportion was the greatest, the "cropland → cropland → cropland" was the greatest area change model, second model was "forestland → forestland → forestland", and the least proportion area was the stable change type, meanwhile, the greatest area change model was "unused land →cropland →forestland"; the simulation result by the CA-Markov indicated that the cropland would continue to reduce from 2025 to the ultimate states, while resident land would keep increasing, and the cropland → resident land was mainly change trace; other land uses kept dynamic balance statues for their relatively small variation capacity. The research results provide a scientific basis for land planning and management and regional economy developing.