Land use change in China and analysis of its driving forces using CLUE-S and Dinamica EGO model

In order to analyze the driving mechanism and to predict land use change of China in the future, CLUE-S(the conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extent) and Dinamica EGO(environment for geoprocessing objects) model were used to simulate land use change in China from 2000 to 2020 based on the land use data in 2000 and 2005 from Data Center for Resources and Environmental Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences (RESDC). With Logistic regression and Bayesian estimation, land use suitability and spatial characters of driving factors of land use change from 2000 to 2005 in China were analyzed. The simulation results in 2005 indicated that, the predictions of LUCC (land use change in China) with CLUE-S and Dinamica EGO matched broadly with actual situation and CLUE-S was better than Dinamica EGO model in overall accuracy. However, the Markov process in Dinamica EGO could precisely predict the amount of land use change and the spatial pattern was consistent with empirical result. The simulation results of land use in 2020 showed that areas of farmland, forest, water and construction land would increase, while grassland would decrease largely. Unused land would increase with CLUE-S model but decrease with Dinamica EGO model. This article serves as the scientific foundation for land resource plan and farmland protection policy in China.