Potential calculation and time-series zoning for rural residential land consolidation at county scale

Abstract: This paper focused on the time-series arrangements when implementing regional rural residential land readjustment (RRLR) and its relation to regional potential of RRLR. By using a simplified reality-modifying per capita construction land quota method, we estimated the regional RRLR's realistic potential, on which we proposed the regional important index of RRLR. Afterwards, we further proposed the regional urgent index of RRLR and presented an indicator system to evaluate it. Then, the prioritization matrix was introduced and a prioritization matrix for regional RRLR's time-series arrangements was established. Finally, we conducted a case study of Rugao city, Jiangsu province. Results showed that RRLR is crucial to support this city's transformation and sustainable development of its high-growth economy and rapid-changing society. The total realistic potential of RRLR for Rugao was 14859.87 hm2, accounting for 46.73 percent of the rural residential land and 56.71 percent of the theoretic potential, and that the 20 towns could be divided into four types which differ in their priority to carry out the RRLR projects. The top priority zone contains four towns that are mostly the city's growth pools, and the total RRLR's realistic potential is 3958.04hm2, which accounts for 26.63 percent of the whole city's total realistic potential. The second priority zone contains two towns that are in urgent need for construction land quotas and increasing regional arable land; their total RRLR's realistic potential is 926.87 hm2, only 6.24 percent. The third priority zone contains five towns that has much realistic potential but is not in urgent need for urban construction and arable land requirements; their realistic potential is 4539.31 hm2 that accounts for 30.55 percent of the whole. The last priority zone contain 9 towns that have relatively low potential and less urgent need, their total RRLR's realistic potential is 5435.64 hm2, 36.58 percent of the whole potential. Total realistic potential of the top priority zone and the second priority zone is enough to cover the urban construction land requirements of Rugao city in the coming nine years. To further increase Rugao's arable land, RRLR in the third priority zone should be paid more attention. To better motivate each stakeholder's initiative, this paper suggests that we use RRLR-related funds and construction land quotas as the incentives, and that more funds and quotas should be provided for the top priority zone, less funds and enough quotas for the second priority zone, more funds but less quotas for the third priority zone, and provide no active support for the last priority zone. This research presents some guides and policy implications for the regional planning of RRLR projects in Rugao City and similar regions.