Analyzing and modeling land use pattern changes in rapid urbanization of area: a case study of Guangzhou City, China

Taking Guangzhou as study area, supported by remote sensing and GIS technology, the temporal and spatial pattern characters of land use was analyzed with landscape metrics from both class and landscape level in 1990's in Guangzhou area. The scenarios of land use pattern in 2010 also simulated by combining the Markov process with cellular automata model. The area of construction was rapid increasing during the last ten years in 20th century, at the same time the arable land, woodland and abandoned land areas were decreasing, the orchard and water areas were rarely changed. The number of patches was increasing contrasting landscape fragmentation increasing. In the first ten years in 21st century, land use pattern keep the same change trend in 1990's. The modeling results showed that land use pattern become fragmentized and patches shape become simple in Guangzhou, no evidences showed that the arable land decreasing rate will be slow down in the recent future. It's necessary to enhance the control functions of land use planning and take actives measures to protect arable land.